Posted by Heartbourne on Saturday, October 17th, 2009 - 28 Comments
Tags: patch 3.3, toravon the ice watcher
With Icecrown Citadel testing underway and with the builds containing more fine-tuning than major mechanics changes, a lot of people are speculating on the release date of patch 3.3. I’ve heard this date cited by multiple prominent WoW media figures and I will agree that it is a likely date - December 8th, which is about 6 weeks.
There are a few things that put an upper limit on how much time they can spend developing the patch. The first of which is the new arena season. It would be bizarre to not release the new arena season with or around the release the patch, as adding a new watcher, in this case Toravon the Ice Watcher, is a major mechanic in arena gear. The past three arena seasons have been 17-18 weeks, and arena season 7 started 7 weeks ago. As such, I would not expect the patch any later than Christmas.
Another time-limiting factor would be the upcoming Cataclysm beta. With estimates putting it in quarter 2 or 3 of next year, the Cataclysm beta needs to get started as soon as possible. This would almost certainly not happen when the patch 3.3 PTR is up, and probably not soon after the patch’s release, as to keep the attention on the rest of Wrath’s lifespan. Icecrown Citadel may be “released” in phases, like Sunwell or Trial of the Crusader, so this could be a buffer of several weeks between the release of patch 3.3 and the start of the Cataclysm beta. I expect the Cataclysm beta to start in late January.
There are still players who do not have Wrath of the Lich King. This will be the last major holiday season where Wrath can make a meaningful appearance under the Christmas tree, so expect the patch to be ready by Christmas. I also doubt that much of the Blizzard team wants to be working into Christmas for this patch, or have major server downtime during the week leading up to Christmas.
There are some factors that push the patch date forward. Among them is the fact that this is the final content patch for Wrath of the Lich King. It will be the defining phase of Wrath; it has been in the works for a year and will be how everyone will remember the expansion. Blizzard will make sure that it will be released when it is ready and no sooner.
Another thing to consider is the new content available for Pilgrim’s Bounty, the new Thanksgiving-themed holiday. It should keep players mildly amused as they bide their time for the patch. I would not expect patch 3.3 to come out before Thanksgiving. December 8th is two weeks after Thanksgiving, and it seems reasonable for a release date. My backup date is December 16; I don’t see the release date being anything except for those two.
Are you hoping for it around these dates?
Related Posts: How Did Project Lore Do on Patch 3.2 Speculation?, When Will Wrath Be Released?, Working Against The Clock, My Raiding Days May Be Over - Till Wrath, Is 3.0.8 Here Yet??,
By khazzhar on Saturday, October 17th, 2009 at 9:05 pm
Your predictions make sense. Looking forward to the patch, and very pleased to see that Blizz is making this just as long and epic as they should, instead of botching it like they did with Illidan.
By Alayea on Saturday, October 17th, 2009 at 10:03 pm
December sounds right. Already have had 3.3 on the PTR for a couple weeks at least, so that’ll give the patch at least a month for the kinks and bugs to be worked out.
By 4Khazmodan on Saturday, October 17th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
Thank you for clearing up the deal with the positioning for the ice watcher. Kinda weird though how they added a separate room that throws off the symmetry of the dungeon. Never thought of that.
By Amatera on Sunday, October 18th, 2009 at 4:06 am
@VoA Map
Well, I guess that answers that!
By Amatera on Sunday, October 18th, 2009 at 4:14 am
Also, I’m going to go ahead and stick with a mid-late November date, myself. Though there’s still Thanksgiving and finals (for students) to deal with, it’s virtually guaranteed that people will be spending a lot of time with their families in December, away from their computers.
I can see it being very hard for guilds to organize groups for a new raid when everyone is off doing their own thing. Of course, that might be an artificial limiter Blizzard is willing to deal with, since it means many people won’t be able to really get to work on the encounters until sometime in January.
Just as well, WoW’s 5 year anniversary is coming up in late November, which would be a fantastic time to go ahead and drop Icecrown Citadel, the culmination of everything that’s been happening since Warcraft 3 was released. It feels like a good time to be moving forward.
As for the new Vault boss? Well, IIRC Koralon *was* included in Patch 3.2, but wasn’t actually “available” until the new arena season started several weeks later. There’s no reason to wait just because of that.
By cocopuff on Sunday, October 18th, 2009 at 6:34 am
i have my doubts that this will be the last patch of LK i heard that the expenchion will be released in the fall of next year what are they going to do for those 9-10 months?
By Nilrog on Sunday, October 18th, 2009 at 6:35 am
I THINK you meant December 15th….the 16th is a Wednesday.
By jimshirt on Sunday, October 18th, 2009 at 6:50 am
@ cocopuff i have not heard anything later than summer for the realsese. most people seem to think that its going to be april-june. also at blizzcon , i forget which pannel it was, but someone said we would be complaining about goblin rogues at the next blizzcon which would mean the game would probably be out by august. and for those 6 months or whatever they kinda expect you to roll an alt. they are makaing leveling so much eaisier with everything being boa and cross server groups.
By jimshirt on Sunday, October 18th, 2009 at 6:52 am
in the article he also says q2/q3 for release fall is q4
By Kyle on Sunday, October 18th, 2009 at 7:16 am
i agree with you about December, but they are going to add more features after November 13th when we get the update to battle.net, also @Jim that’s gamestops date, they always pick the latest date in the year so they can take pre-orders without having to push it back hopefully
By jimshirt on Sunday, October 18th, 2009 at 7:25 am
i said spring/ summer it was coco who said gamestops date
By cocopuff on Sunday, October 18th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
i said it was going to be some time in fall i never said what month of fall but as i recall the oficial release date was released around 6 months before the actual release date and to my knowladge no solid release date has been stated
By Bronte on Sunday, October 18th, 2009 at 7:18 pm
I think this may be a bit too optimistic.
I made a post on my blog discussing the possible release dates for Cataclysm, and, in retrospect, Icecrown. I have used some empirical and chronological evidence to try and establish what makes the most sense.
I am providing a link below and see if you agree with the possible release date for both Icecrown and Cataclysm.
http://arewenewatthis.wordpress.com/2009/10/15/cataclysmic-or-when-its-done-stupid/
By l33tadin on Monday, October 19th, 2009 at 11:41 am
Bronte…..VERY detailed analysos…..great job….and i think your right about an early summer release date for Cat….otherwise even fewer ppl will expirience icecrown than thy did sunwell and naxx 40
By piggy on Monday, October 19th, 2009 at 1:01 pm
i think they should make hte VoA map into a four pronged shape with a center circle with 4 paths to each boss it would look better
By kerthmuthar on Monday, October 19th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
next fall is q2 of 2011 january is q3 4 for 2010. depends on how blizz year is also where does it say 3.3 is the end i have yet to see any one but you guys say 3.3 is the end. look at the map could another boss fit in there i would think so. if you guys read this tell me or show me where it say 3.3 is the last of lich. i may be wrong but have not all the expansion and gmae come out in november why would they change it. and the reason why peopkle would be complaining about goblin rogues would be the beta. i still say beta in the late spring early summer. i think also the project lore better start coming out with something more people then just repeats of kara. i am starting to get sick of just blog about what you guys think. dont get me wrong they are all fine and dandy but i fell in love with pr from the vids not the blogs.
By kerthmuthar on Monday, October 19th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
also wouldnt they wait till the buzz around diablo and starcraft die down. i thought they were do out last spring early summor. one would think they would spend more time wanting o sell them before the realse a expansion for their cash cow. again show me where blizz said this is the end to lich. if you can’t i would assume you guys just pull stuff out of your asses.
By cocopuff on Monday, October 19th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
kerth all your second statement proves is that they might actauly release it in spring early summer imagine the income think about blizz gets a large shair of every sell the exchinchions alone bring in a butload of cash 2 of the biggest payouts for blizz is blizzcon and expenchion time millions around the globe rush to a store to get a copy for them selfs and then their the collectors addition releasing 3 XPEC in a weeks span blizz getting a shaire of each sell would egual in billions just from the first day
By kerthmuthar on Monday, October 19th, 2009 at 5:50 pm
well everyone has beeen talking about symmetry of the vault lookk at the map if this was it does it look symmemetric. i still say there will be one more major patch i mean malganis is alive still i would still say that right now seeing as he want his revenge on the lich king he would be more powerfull then him he just buying his time till its right think about it
By Tiforlent on Tuesday, October 20th, 2009 at 8:20 am
I heard through the rumor mill that 3.3 will be making all badge drops in heroics Emblems of Triumph…can anyone confirm or deny?
By kerthisamoron on Tuesday, October 20th, 2009 at 9:03 am
kerth. read lore plz. arthas raped malganis. you complain about project lore yet you dont even know basic lich lore. you fail. learn to type plz. malganis couldnt defeat arthas, not with arthas wielding frostmourne. youre a complete idiot.
@Tif
yes read the patch notes, all heroics and raids will drop triumph badges, i believe the new badge will be Emblem of Frost.
By Kalgorn on Tuesday, October 20th, 2009 at 9:32 am
To be honest, im glad they’re adding a fourth boss for VoA. But i, too, am curious about where he’s gunna be. From the picture, it looks like there’s gunna be a third hall added to accomodate this Ice watcher.
It was just my idea, but i was kinda hoping that to fight Toravon, all the other bosses had to be down. then he would spawn….. somewhere.
Which might be how they do it. I mean, that hall has never been there before. so the wall might open up to allow u to go down and fight him only when the first three bosses are down.
By Blastoff on Tuesday, October 20th, 2009 at 10:08 pm
by the shape of the map it looks like theyll be adding, or at least leaving room for, a fifth. so i very much doubt there will be a ‘wall opening’ scenario
By steve on Thursday, October 22nd, 2009 at 4:18 pm
I was hoping the last VOA boss was below the current bosses. The middle circle should be an elevator!
By Gorlimtouk on Saturday, October 24th, 2009 at 8:15 am
I wonder if they ad a 5th boss for the symmetry
If we look at the 4 elements, it always comes with a rumored 5th element: the binding element,
known as an unknown element
or sheer Energy.
this energy is either arcane / nature
or it is the combine of all 4 elements
(equal to something like earth wind fire achievment
a thinker: would this be updated to four seasons at once aka eath wind fire and frost achievment?
I’m really lookin forward to the new frost boss,
Stocking up arctic fur for my plate already.
(u dont want to have a cold when attempting him for the first time!)
Have fun raiding,
Gorly
By Matt Ryan on Monday, November 2nd, 2009 at 8:41 am
There are five “Revenant” type elementals in Wintergrasp: Earthbound, Flame, Water, Tempest… and Shadow.
By Slyght on Monday, November 2nd, 2009 at 2:27 pm
Hey, I’m a little late to this discussion, but I wanted to throw my prediction into the mix.
PTR’s for major content patches traditionally last 6-7 weeks. This was the case for all major raid content patches since TBC (2.1,2.3,2.4,3.1,3.2). 3.1 and Ulduar was the longest patch ever at 7 weeks.
Following past trends, given that the PTR went up October 1st, we should expect Patch 3.3 to go live on November 17.
This would be the same week that 2.3 and WotLK went live in 2007 and 2008 respectively, so it seems to be a popular week for things to go live. If Blizzard were to wait until Thanksgiving (both IRL and in-game) were over, we’d be looking at like a 9+ week PTR which is way longer than I think they would want to have the content up for.
I think we also haven’t seen a lot of content on the PTR (gear, Halls of Reflection, sound files, etc) because Blizzard’s making an effort to keep as much under wraps as they can until it goes live. They’re doing a great job, to be honest. I don’t think this is indicative that the patch isn’t done or anything like that.
By dillon on Wednesday, November 18th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
ya its alredy out just came out today