Patch 3.3 Release Date Predictions

With Icecrown Citadel testing underway and with the builds containing more fine-tuning than major mechanics changes, a lot of people are speculating on the release date of patch 3.3. I’ve heard this date cited by multiple prominent WoW media figures and I will agree that it is a likely date - December 8th, which is about 6 weeks.

There are a few things that put an upper limit on how much time they can spend developing the patch. The first of which is the new arena season. It would be bizarre to not release the new arena season with or around the release the patch, as adding a new watcher, in this case Toravon the Ice Watcher, is a major mechanic in arena gear. The past three arena seasons have been 17-18 weeks, and arena season 7 started 7 weeks ago. As such, I would not expect the patch any later than Christmas.

Another time-limiting factor would be the upcoming Cataclysm beta. With estimates putting it in quarter 2 or 3 of next year, the Cataclysm beta needs to get started as soon as possible. This would almost certainly not happen when the patch 3.3 PTR is up, and probably not soon after the patch’s release, as to keep the attention on the rest of Wrath’s lifespan. Icecrown Citadel may be “released” in phases, like Sunwell or Trial of the Crusader, so this could be a buffer of several weeks between the release of patch 3.3 and the start of the Cataclysm beta. I expect the Cataclysm beta to start in late January.

There are still players who do not have Wrath of the Lich King. This will be the last major holiday season where Wrath can make a meaningful appearance under the Christmas tree, so expect the patch to be ready by Christmas. I also doubt that much of the Blizzard team wants to be working into Christmas for this patch, or have major server downtime during the week leading up to Christmas.

There are some factors that push the patch date forward. Among them is the fact that this is the final content patch for Wrath of the Lich King. It will be the defining phase of Wrath; it has been in the works for a year and will be how everyone will remember the expansion. Blizzard will make sure that it will be released when it is ready and no sooner.

Another thing to consider is the new content available for Pilgrim’s Bounty, the new Thanksgiving-themed holiday. It should keep players mildly amused as they bide their time for the patch. I would not expect patch 3.3 to come out before Thanksgiving. December 8th is two weeks after Thanksgiving, and it seems reasonable for a release date. My backup date is December 16; I don’t see the release date being anything except for those two.

Are you hoping for it around these dates?